With a 60-run loss to New Zealand in the first match of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 in Karachi, Pakistan began with a disappointed start. Their hopes of advancing from Group A to the semi-finals have taken a major hit because of this outcome, but they are still in with a chance. It will take strategic genius, consistent play, and some luck, but Pakistan can still qualify. 

Read another blog: Fakhar Zaman Out, Imam-ul-Haq In!

Pakistan’s Current Scenario

Both points and net run rate (NRR), an important factor in deciding qualification in the event that numerous teams end with similar points, took a hit after Pakistan’s crushing loss to New Zealand. 

Group A includes:

• Pakistan
• New Zealand
• India
• South Africa

Pakistan currently faces a difficult task with three matches remaining in the group round. Their subsequent two matches are practically must-win matches because even a single defeat in a brief competition such as the Champions Trophy might be dangerous. 

How Can Pakistan Still Qualify for the Semi-Finals?

If Pakistan want to make it to the semi-finals and finish in the top two in Group A, they need to follow this plan: 

1. Win Both Remaining Matches (Against India & South Africa)

Beating South Africa and India is the quickest and easiest way to qualify. 

• Pakistan vs. India – A victory against India would do wonders for Pakistan’s chances and self-esteem following their slow start; this match is known as the most high-pressure of any ICC tournament.
• Pakistan vs. South Africa –Even though they face an impressive South African side, Pakistan still needs to find a way to win.

If net run rate (NRR) is not a factor, Pakistan would likely be able to gain a position in the semi-finals with four points if they win both games.

2. Improve the Net Run Rate (NRR)

With their 60-run loss against New Zealand, Pakistan’s net run rate has become negative. If teams are in a tie for first place, the winner will be decided by NRR. 

• Pakistan needs to win by significant margins against South Africa and India if they want to increase their NRR.
• Pakistan will need additional matches to go their way if they manage to win a tight one with a low NRR.

3. Hope for Other Teams’ Results to Go in Their Favor

It all depends on the other teams’ performances, but Pakistan still has a chance to qualify if they win one of their last two matches. 

• With a single victory, Pakistan might sneak by if South Africa or India lose a number of games.
• Net run rate (NRR) might be a factor if New Zealand loses to South Africa or India.

Instead of depending on other teams, Pakistan would like to win both games and control their own fate. 

Areas Where Pakistan Needs to Improve

1. Batting Stability

If Pakistan wants to score or respond to large totals, its top order must perform. They showed a few weaknesses in their match against New Zealand: 

• The innings must be stabilized by Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan to keep from early breakdowns.
• Players such as Iftikhar Ahmed and Saud Shakeel, who are in the center of the order, need to perform better.
• A weak start may hinder Pakistan in high-pressure chases, so strike rate is essential.

2. Bowling Discipline

Pakistan’s bowling attack, which is usually their strongest action, was unimpressive in their loss to New Zealand. Some things that could be improved are:

• Last overs require better execution because losing runs late on can be expensive.
• Shadab Khan and the other spinners need to be consistent in their bowling and take wickets in the middle overs.

3. Fielding and Fitness

Dropped catches and misfields can be the deciding factors in a short event like the Champions Trophy, where Pakistan’s fielding has always been lacking. 

Final Thoughts

If Pakistan play their best cricket going forward, they still have a chance to recover and make it to the semi-finals. If they want to keep in the hunt, they’ll need to win their next two games.

If Pakistan can:

• South Africa and India must be defeated.
• Successfully increase NRR by winning
• Fix your batting, bowling, and fielding

Then their chances of advancing to the semi-finals are significantly increased. If it doesn’t happen, an early elimination from the competition is on the way.

All eyes are on Babar Azam and his squad today; will they be able to carry Pakistan to the ICC Champions Trophy 2025? You can’t afford to lose the following set of matches.